2009 Season: Over/Under Season Wins

"Normal" season, weekly and monthly prices for both the NFL and NBA sports handicapping selections will be the same as last season. There will be discounts for full-season NFL/NBA clients who sign up BEFORE 9/1/10 and even BIGGER DISCOUNTS for full season NFL/NBA clients who sign up BEFORE 8/1/10. While I don't make 'official' NFL football pre-season selections, this year I WILL BE offering opinions on the 2010 NFL pre-season football games. Those clients who sign up during or before these pre-season games will receive these opinions AT NO ADDITIONAL COST AND THUS AT A DISCOUNTED RATED FOR THE WHOLE YEAR!! In addition, during the NFL pre-season, I will be making posts about once a week on my 'take' on the coming NFL season. In these posts I will be sharing various NFL football handicapping insights for the coming year.

Hope to be serving you very soon.


Originally Posted on the NFL Discussion Forum page on 9/10/09.

In sports wagering a bettor will win the money over the long haul if he has a sharper perception than the normal bettors and thus the oddsmakers, who are forced to be tied into the 'thinking' of the normal bettors. The below post is proof of this. In the four NFL season over/under selections I made, my projection (calculated late in the pre-season) of the final team win totals of these four teams was within ONE game of the number of games that these NFL teams actually won in three of these picks!! The only team I was 'off' more than one game on was the Raiders who won 1.07 games more (they ended the season at 5-11) than the 3.93 games I projected them to win. But since I give myself AT LEAST a 1 1/2 game 'cushion' on these season over/under wagers (meaning that my pre-season projection of the total wins of a team has to be off the betting line by at least 1 1/2 games), my under 5 1/2 win selection (we had a 1.57 game 'cushion' on this bet) on the Raiders came through for clients.

On the Dallas Cowboys, my win projection ended up just .45 games off of the real final record (11.45 versus 11-5), with the vastly overrated New England Patriots (a team many assumed would win the Super Bowl in a breeze in the pre-season), my win projection was just .32 games off from the actual final record (9.68 versus 10-6), with the Jacksonville Jaguars my pre-season record projection was .62 games off from the real record (6.38 versus 7-9).

Please make note that while my projected NFL team records on ALL of these four winning NFL season over/under plays was inferior compared to what the ACTUAL records were, we still went an UNDEFEATED 4-0 on these wagers. Again, the reason for this was the 'cushion' I insist on giving my clients on these (and ALL OTHER bets for that matter) plays.

This shows that if an individual does his NFL handicapping homework that he can beat the oddsmakers. Even if you decide NOT to use my service, for your own financial well-being, PLEASE AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE ANY 'SPORTS HANDICAPPER' OR 'SPORTS SERVICE' who does not use this method of selecting wagers for you (calculating the 'TRUE' odds on his own and then comparing these to the numbers being offered by the sports books). There are many such betting plagues out there who do NOT do that (saying stupid garbage like how 'the market is efficient and knows more than you do'). I can promise that those internet frauds WILL financially ruin you (and also will probably first fleece you via worthless 'seminars' that will take 2K plus out of your financial coffers).

Season Plays Analysis
Dallas Cowboys over nine wins: Normal Play

I have written my reasons for much liking the Cowboys in my season outlook above. My mathematical play-out of the season had them winning 11.45 (11-5) games. Though six games against tough NFC East teams will challenge them, four games against the AFC West (only the San Diego Chargers will present any challenge whatsoever) and the NFC South (only New Orleans Saints are a strong team there), ease their schedule somewhat.

New England Patriots under 11 ½ wins: Small Play

As I have written in earlier write-ups I don’t quite agree that the New England Patriots are a shoo-in to win the AFC due to Tom Brady’s return. I don’t believe at all that he will be the same quarterback who threw an incredible 50 regular season touchdown passes two years ago. He is two years older now (plus is now a knee injury casualty) , as is his main receiver in Randy Moss. Both are now 32. (I consider Moss an old age for a receiver.) The Patriots offense line started to show weaknesses in pass protection in the Super Bowl loss to the New York Giants in early 2008 and these weaknesses continued to be highlighted last season. Their running game is slightly above average at best and the secondary is average at best. Their excellent coach in Bill (AKA Pot Roast Hair) Belichick should get them back atop the AFC East though the New York Jets could give them a harder time getting there than most might think. Three tough games (the Jacksonville Jaguars being the exception in this regard) against AFC North opponents (two of them on the road) will test the Pats. My season projections have them winning 9.68 games (10-6). The New England Patriots, until further notice (meaning until the “esteemed market-forces” and the betting public adjust their views on them) will be an overrated club on spread prices.

Jacksonville Jaguars under 8 ½ (or 8 with better vig) wins: Small Play

Many folks are assuming that the Jags “automatically” will “bounce back” this season from their 5-11 2008 disaster. Their recent “up-and-down” pattern of success seems to be the reason for this “market-force” thinking. However, I don’t blindly follow “trends” or “patterns” unless there is a PRESENT REASON to do so. (Many such bettors come up with “patterns” to try to win at virtually unbeatable games like craps, keno, and roulette. These “patterns” are really just “random number fluxes” which are NOT profitable to use to project FUTURE events.)

I don’t see that many reasons to like the Jackosnville Jaguars in the present. For starters they have three very tough divisional rivals in the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, and the Houston Texans. I’d be most surprised if thethe Jaguars win more than two of their six divisional games (going 1-5 in these games would be no surprise whatsover to me). This means that they need to go at least 7-3 in their other ten games to cost us this play. Though these other ten games are not especially challenging I don’t see this occurring. In addition, if the Jaguars go 2-4 or worse in the AFC South, it seems certain that they will be out of division and conference playoff contention late. Last year, they quit in their last six games after they fell out of playoff contention. With their coach, Jack Del Rio being on the “hot seat” why will that team attitude change this season?

The Jacksonville Jaguars on paper also have many problems. Their receivers are not good. The offensive line looks like it will be in flux the whole season, which won’t help Gerrard at quarterback or their running game. Their defense seems below average both against the run and especially the pass (and pass pressure). They strongly figure finish far in last place in the AFC South and I projected them to win just 6.38 games.

Oakland Raiders under 5 ½ wins: Small Play

I see that strong pick-up Richard Seymour has still not reported to the Raiders (as of late yesterday). Thus I might not be the only person who sees a very bad 2009 season for this club! From all indications (which were confirmed in a rough pre-season) this team seems in its usual chaos. Their coach Tom Cable has to be mostly thinking about when Al Davis’s ax will be falling on him. It should happen well before the season ends.

While the Raiders are located in the weak (except for the San Diego Chargers) AFC West, they have four games against the toughest division in the NFL (NFC East—in which every team is a C+ or better one), plus four games against a rather tough AFC North division (has two excellent teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens plus two much improved ones in the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals). Their two other AFC games (New York Jets and Houston Texans) will not be easy games either. My projections have the Raiders winning a league-low 3.93 games (4-12) as they figure to go under six wins for an NFL record seventh straight season.

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